I don't know, it's not a bad prediction by any means but I don't agree. I mean, yeah, there's always going to be some black market trade - if I can get a stereo stolen for 20 bucks why pay 120 at Wal-Mart for instance, if I'm so inclined. I don't think that's a good reason to write off decriminalization though.
For one thing, you don't see the kind of crazy nuts black market for moonshine now that you did during prohibition; you can only buy alcohol up to a certain potency right now, and it's mostly illegal to brew it at home (well, there are some legal avenues, I have friends that brew some great legit mead) despite the fact that it's vastly cheaper to make it in a bathtub as opposed to buying it off the shelf. People still make the shine, and people still enjoy drinking it in some places, but the demand for alcohol is satisfied via legal markets for the majority of people so there's no profit in it for large scale organized crime. The only places where illicit alcohol brewing result in violence and criminality are, no surprise, the kind of backwater places where the local police have nothing better to do than fight an ideological/religious war on brewers.
As for government restrictions on potency, as far as cannabis goes it's actually in the government's best interests in terms of health to increase potency and purity; the less you have to smoke to get high the less of the waste products - tar, etc - you have to inhale. That's one of the big reasons why medicinal cannabis, in places where it's legal, is so potent compared to street stuff (and man, it is so much better tasting too...) For other drugs, especially the ones that have been incredibly purified or are just synthetic and insanely potent in the first place, I imagine that there would be some restrictions put in place, but taxes earned from them would most likely be apportioned toward research, education, and treatment for addicts of the "hard stuff"; or at least that's how I'd do it.
As for cost, the majority of the cost for an illicit drug has to do with the risk extant in getting it to the user. One of the main goals of the war on drugs is actually to reduce supply so that the street cost of the drug increases, supposedly to the point that the average person can't afford to get hooked or something. Of course this is ruinous for people who are already addicted, because the worst of them will do anything it takes to get that money regardless of the cost, and it's terribly socially irresponsible. In any case cost would probably drop dramatically for almost anything, though I can see cannabis staying about the same as it currently costs medicinal patients, which iirc is around $5/gram for premium product.
For one thing, you don't see the kind of crazy nuts black market for moonshine now that you did during prohibition; you can only buy alcohol up to a certain potency right now, and it's mostly illegal to brew it at home (well, there are some legal avenues, I have friends that brew some great legit mead) despite the fact that it's vastly cheaper to make it in a bathtub as opposed to buying it off the shelf. People still make the shine, and people still enjoy drinking it in some places, but the demand for alcohol is satisfied via legal markets for the majority of people so there's no profit in it for large scale organized crime. The only places where illicit alcohol brewing result in violence and criminality are, no surprise, the kind of backwater places where the local police have nothing better to do than fight an ideological/religious war on brewers.
As for government restrictions on potency, as far as cannabis goes it's actually in the government's best interests in terms of health to increase potency and purity; the less you have to smoke to get high the less of the waste products - tar, etc - you have to inhale. That's one of the big reasons why medicinal cannabis, in places where it's legal, is so potent compared to street stuff (and man, it is so much better tasting too...) For other drugs, especially the ones that have been incredibly purified or are just synthetic and insanely potent in the first place, I imagine that there would be some restrictions put in place, but taxes earned from them would most likely be apportioned toward research, education, and treatment for addicts of the "hard stuff"; or at least that's how I'd do it.
As for cost, the majority of the cost for an illicit drug has to do with the risk extant in getting it to the user. One of the main goals of the war on drugs is actually to reduce supply so that the street cost of the drug increases, supposedly to the point that the average person can't afford to get hooked or something. Of course this is ruinous for people who are already addicted, because the worst of them will do anything it takes to get that money regardless of the cost, and it's terribly socially irresponsible. In any case cost would probably drop dramatically for almost anything, though I can see cannabis staying about the same as it currently costs medicinal patients, which iirc is around $5/gram for premium product.