If you read Yahoo's article, you've heard about the worries of a 'new' war on North Korea.
Do you think it will happen?
Do you think it will happen?
A Possible War in North Korea?
- Thread starter Spoo
- Start date
CrapFactory
Member
War with Korea would be complicated. First off the country has a sizable military. It wouldn't be like Iraq which fell like pie. There would be sizable fighting and it would be costly. Add to the fact that much of their country is caved and tunneled up. They literally have much of their land filled with hidden tunnels and stuff making conventional warfare not work too well and it would be hard for it to not turn into another Vietnam. Add yet another fact that North Korea has ties to both the former Soviet Union and China. Weather or not Russia would honor these ties is unknown. But even if they don't you've still got to deal with freakin' China. If China wanted to go all in then this would turn very bad very quickly.
Also North Korea does have missiles which could reach Japan or the United States. There's a real risk of real reprisal and our anti-missile technology isn't yet reliable enough.
And yet another thing is that Japan isn't exactly ready. We stuck them with a constitution which leaves them neigh-military-less. Though a top economic force it's unclear how effective Japan would be in a war and both it and South Korea will be front players in this war.
It's just complicated, risky and would be costly. If a war came we'd want to try and smooth things out with China. If a war came and South Korea took over North Korea this would increase the pressure from powers they don't really want pressure from. They don't like what North Korea is doing but at the same time they don't want to see more of the region fall under anti-communist influence. And our relations with much of the Russia area has become more and more strained and I don't know what would happen there.
Also China would get a HUGE influx of refugees that it wouldn't want to try to handle. Possibly millions of refugees.
In the end if by some MIRACLE (and that is what it would take) South Korea, Japan and the US get China on their side or at least to stay neutral (through refugee relief and basic understanding) you've STILL got the risk that North Korea could send a missile to the US or to South Korea or Japan. And the war would last quite a while and be probably much much more costly then these ones in the middle east right now.
In the end though most of the civilized world seems to hate them but nobody is willing to go to war yet. However many people still think we should have gone to them instead of Iraq but that would heavily involve South Korea and Japan which would also need to be heavily involved and we wouldn't want to force them into it. And I believe one key to possibly winning would be a propaganda war probably with whoever is fighting NK dropping food all over them to try and win the people over.
Also North Korea does have missiles which could reach Japan or the United States. There's a real risk of real reprisal and our anti-missile technology isn't yet reliable enough.
And yet another thing is that Japan isn't exactly ready. We stuck them with a constitution which leaves them neigh-military-less. Though a top economic force it's unclear how effective Japan would be in a war and both it and South Korea will be front players in this war.
It's just complicated, risky and would be costly. If a war came we'd want to try and smooth things out with China. If a war came and South Korea took over North Korea this would increase the pressure from powers they don't really want pressure from. They don't like what North Korea is doing but at the same time they don't want to see more of the region fall under anti-communist influence. And our relations with much of the Russia area has become more and more strained and I don't know what would happen there.
Also China would get a HUGE influx of refugees that it wouldn't want to try to handle. Possibly millions of refugees.
In the end if by some MIRACLE (and that is what it would take) South Korea, Japan and the US get China on their side or at least to stay neutral (through refugee relief and basic understanding) you've STILL got the risk that North Korea could send a missile to the US or to South Korea or Japan. And the war would last quite a while and be probably much much more costly then these ones in the middle east right now.
In the end though most of the civilized world seems to hate them but nobody is willing to go to war yet. However many people still think we should have gone to them instead of Iraq but that would heavily involve South Korea and Japan which would also need to be heavily involved and we wouldn't want to force them into it. And I believe one key to possibly winning would be a propaganda war probably with whoever is fighting NK dropping food all over them to try and win the people over.
Incognitus
Member
No. Very unlikely.
Kim Jong-il just hopes to get everyone to pay attention to him around the negotiating table.
Kim Jong-il just hopes to get everyone to pay attention to him around the negotiating table.
dadevvtsvre
Sponsor
It's a complicated situation but after thinking about it I'd probably say no, or at least, unlikely at this point.
I'm not too knowledgeable on the subject but from what I've heard North Korea's missiles are not very powerful, or reliable. The strength of one of their nuclear missiles is still only about how powerful the bomb that Hiroshima in 1945 was. And I've heard stories of their missiles simply falling apart in the air, rendering them useless and not too useful. I'm not saying that they don't have the capability to attack another country, but I'm saying their technlogy isn't sufficient enough (yet) to make it feasible.
Not to mention they're pretty much alone up there. If North Korea attacked a country like Japan or South Korea the whole world would be on them in a heartbeat. And if the US or China engaged in combat with North Korea, fourth-largest army in the world or not they wouldn't last long, especially considering their land mass in comparison to the United State's or China's. Of course, it depends who China would want to ally with. I don't know too much about China and North Korea's relationsip but I can't see why either China (or Russia, for that matter) would ally with them. China needs NK to stay alive for business matters as well so they wouldn't want NK to go to war.
I'm not saying they won't attack but to do so wouldn't have much effect and would hurt North Korea more than it already is. Kim Jong-Il will die soon and when he does he's most likely going to be replaced by his son. His son could be equally as crazy, but with any luck he'll be less insane than his father and stop some of the things they're doing.
I'm not too knowledgeable on the subject but from what I've heard North Korea's missiles are not very powerful, or reliable. The strength of one of their nuclear missiles is still only about how powerful the bomb that Hiroshima in 1945 was. And I've heard stories of their missiles simply falling apart in the air, rendering them useless and not too useful. I'm not saying that they don't have the capability to attack another country, but I'm saying their technlogy isn't sufficient enough (yet) to make it feasible.
Not to mention they're pretty much alone up there. If North Korea attacked a country like Japan or South Korea the whole world would be on them in a heartbeat. And if the US or China engaged in combat with North Korea, fourth-largest army in the world or not they wouldn't last long, especially considering their land mass in comparison to the United State's or China's. Of course, it depends who China would want to ally with. I don't know too much about China and North Korea's relationsip but I can't see why either China (or Russia, for that matter) would ally with them. China needs NK to stay alive for business matters as well so they wouldn't want NK to go to war.
I'm not saying they won't attack but to do so wouldn't have much effect and would hurt North Korea more than it already is. Kim Jong-Il will die soon and when he does he's most likely going to be replaced by his son. His son could be equally as crazy, but with any luck he'll be less insane than his father and stop some of the things they're doing.
rey meustrus
Sponsor
It's up to China what happens, and frankly I'd be disappointed if our diplomats can't put aside Red Fever long enough to convince China that it's in nobody's best interest to have such a militarily strong North Korea. We need to stop acting on our own and extend ourselves to China.
XP Learner
Member
Well from what on yahoo things are really heating up.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090624/ap_ ... as_nuclear
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090624/ap_ ... as_nuclear
Incognitus
Member
XP Learner":3seymntb said:
Actually the Koreans are negotiating, and I've not heard that they've stopped speaking.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/koreas-nego ... -cr7h.html
It's just America that NK has a problem with it seems. :P
XP Learner
Member
I am wondering is NK really that bad? there's much worse hostilites in the world I don't no one needs another bad excuse to start a war especially what happened the last eight years with Bush.
Incognitus
Member
XP Learner":mv4asx60 said:
They're one of the few places (if the only place) where everyone can stand up and take a moral stand without having to stuff their skeletons in their closets to avoid sounding like hypocrites.
XP Learner
Member
That's really surprising from what i heard most people say about NK most of it very negative. I'm surprised that even dictators have morals and will not cross the line.
rey meustrus
Sponsor
I forget if anyone brought this up here yet, but technically we are already at war with North Korea. America has has an armistice agreement with them since the 50's, when the Korean War "ended." America supports South Korea, which is in direct opposition to North Korea. The border is constantly watched and manned on both sides, with somebody ready to pull the trigger if at any moment there is a perceived and unannounced threat coming from the other side.
North Korea is against American values as a society, and the government takes that fact and blows it up considerably to its people. There are major cultural differences (such as our belief in individuality vs. theirs in communality), and as Americans we tend to consider ourselves the absolute perfection of morality (at least, when we're not talking about how much worse we are than before; this affliction of ours tends to affect our relations with other parts of our own society as much as it does others). The North Korean government, however, maintains something of a totalitarian hold on information, especially about the United States, so that what might have been a cultural difference is now a political hatred.
Like I said before, it would be best if China could deal with this. I know they don't like the idea of a nuclear Korea all that much more than we do.
North Korea is against American values as a society, and the government takes that fact and blows it up considerably to its people. There are major cultural differences (such as our belief in individuality vs. theirs in communality), and as Americans we tend to consider ourselves the absolute perfection of morality (at least, when we're not talking about how much worse we are than before; this affliction of ours tends to affect our relations with other parts of our own society as much as it does others). The North Korean government, however, maintains something of a totalitarian hold on information, especially about the United States, so that what might have been a cultural difference is now a political hatred.
Like I said before, it would be best if China could deal with this. I know they don't like the idea of a nuclear Korea all that much more than we do.
I understand how powerful Kim thinks he is, and how powerful he really his. Sure it will be a tougher campaign than Iraq, but you also have to consider that the U.N. has been sanctioning a lot of the threats against North Korea. If we go to war with them, it will be a U.N. war like it was in the 50s.
I don't find NK as a threat. A coalition of British and American forces could handle them. The only fear that I have, although it is highly unlikely, is China. China has us by the balls as is, and a big U.N. offense against a tiny shit-hole third-world Communist country won't blow over well with China. It didn't the first time, and it probably won't today. If it came down to a U.N. vote, everyone would favor except China.
But overall, as it stands. It's not going to happen. Kim Jong-Il is a power hungry dictator. He maintains a level of control so high over his people that the minute opposing forces roll into NK (from the DMZ or where ever we may come in) people are going to flip out, and armed militia's are possible. They don't know to what extent they are oppressed because they lack the outside opinion on the matter. But they know they are oppressed and with the help of a big military, revolutionaries will rise up for sure. Kim, as he is no doubt some what intelligent, has probably figured this out.
If he wants to maintain his control, he knows he can't pull off a war with anyone. I say let him have his nuclear bombs. He seems to think they make him and his countries dick bigger.
I don't find NK as a threat. A coalition of British and American forces could handle them. The only fear that I have, although it is highly unlikely, is China. China has us by the balls as is, and a big U.N. offense against a tiny shit-hole third-world Communist country won't blow over well with China. It didn't the first time, and it probably won't today. If it came down to a U.N. vote, everyone would favor except China.
But overall, as it stands. It's not going to happen. Kim Jong-Il is a power hungry dictator. He maintains a level of control so high over his people that the minute opposing forces roll into NK (from the DMZ or where ever we may come in) people are going to flip out, and armed militia's are possible. They don't know to what extent they are oppressed because they lack the outside opinion on the matter. But they know they are oppressed and with the help of a big military, revolutionaries will rise up for sure. Kim, as he is no doubt some what intelligent, has probably figured this out.
If he wants to maintain his control, he knows he can't pull off a war with anyone. I say let him have his nuclear bombs. He seems to think they make him and his countries dick bigger.
Incognitus
Member
Captain Murphy":12haw857 said:
I've just being trying to work out what's going on here, and have realized that my original post wasn't too clear.
The "everyone" does not refer to the populace of North Korea, but rather the international community as a whole.
