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Pandemics - Can there be one disease to kill us all?

Alrighty, this is kind of a split from the Global Warming topic. I didn't feel like actually splitting it because it'd be messy and some of the posts actually had on-topic info in them.

Okay.

Pandemics

Has anyone read The Stand by Stephen King?

Well, there's this (presumably) manufactured disease, people call Captain Tripps. Through some [unimportant] circumstances, the disease breaks loose. A man is infected, who escapes and goes on the lam with his family. This disease is like a super-cold: it exhibits all the same symptoms of a flu, but there is no cure, and it just keeps getting worse and worse until you're dead. Takes sometimes a few days, sometimes a few weeks, but once you have it, that's it.

Anyway, the family reaches a little shitburg somewhere, and die. The people who find the family are all instantly infected. One of these men leaves the town, and travels elsewhere, infecting people as he goes. Then the people that he infected get on a plane. They infect other people in other countries. Those people infect everyone they come in contact with. Within only a few months, nearly all the people in the civilized world are dead. There are a few who survive, who're immune, and they go on a quest, but the focus here is on the pandemic situation.

---


Now then.

Here's the point that Samboy brought up:

Samboy":1gomlqrc said:
I've heard this from a friend recently, and we discussed the possibility of making AIDS airborne. How many would that kill? At least everybody in the country, we guessed. Until it traveled overseas, screwed a few more people and then there we go. Another country wiped out.

Global warming is nothing compared to the viruses that may/will be available in a few years time. Think of all the viruses we have now, think of how many injections we need to get in our life. How did they survive before injections? Go figure.

To which I replied:

Venetia said:
I wouldn't worry about an airborne AIDS virus. It'd be more likely for there to arise a bacterial (not viral) airborne entity. Viruses, for the most part, live in blood or mucus. They need a liquid and certain temperatures to survive. Their "pods" can go anywhere, and are resilient, but bacteria are far more developed and have a larger range of survivability in temperature and dry conditions.

I'd be more worried about a "super" case of bacterial meningitis, really. For anything directly on the horizon. Who knows what kind of bio-manufactured goodness we'll have cooking up in 10 years.

Nphyx brings up a good argument, however:

Nphyx said:
I don't think it's a very likely scenario though.  In order to have a pandemic that can wipe out a large majority of the human race you have to have a lot of factors in place.  It has to be easily transmittable, extremely sturdy, resistant to all known forms of treatment, have just the right timing on contagiousness, incubation and mortality that it doesn't either kill its victims too fast to spread out of a local area or take so long that it poses no serious short-term risk.

Logic tells us that either 1. it's extremely unlikely or even practically impossible for such an organism to evolve or that 2. that it is possible and likely, and we should see in history or at least the fossil record massive but highly selective extinction events, which I am not aware of.  The worst pandemics in human history have rarely succeeded in killing more than a third of a given population, though granted sometimes the side effects - collapse of general civil order - result in more problems (such as in the central and south American civilizations, which some people theorize collapsed entirely due to epidemics).

Also granted most of the extinction events that we see in the fossil record also happen to coincide with the sort of catastrophes that result in large amounts of fossilization.  The human race also suffers from a relatively low amount of genetic diversity compared to most other healthy species, so it's easier for us to share diseases and less likely for one group or another to have genetic resistances (funny when you think of our lack of genetic diversity in regard to racism, yet another tangent), which is something to consider.

As far as manufactured diseases go, I think we give genetic engineers way too much credit.  Microbial life seems to evolve a lot more rapidly than we can keep up with even in terms of treatment, I have a hard time believing we have a good enough grasp on it to really build these designer diseases, and a harder time still believing that if someone had developed one they'd have the prudence to not put it to use.  The kind of megalomaniacs that develop those sorts of weapons especially love seeing them put to effect - see for reference the atomic bomb or weaponized anthrax or any of the monstrous chemical weapons used in WWI.

Clizzz says:

Clizzz said:
Yeah, I too would worry about the "Super Bug" If it's drug resistant, then you will have some problems ... after all we treat sicknesses and diseases with drugs ...

------------

What do you think? Do you think it's possible for a disease to wipe out everyone (or, mostly everyone--certainly atleast civilization as we know it) in the world? What type of disease would it be? Do you think modern science can produce such a thing, or has something led you to believe that something is already happening in nature which bodes badly for us as a species?
 
It is possible If you look back the Human race has been affected by; The Black plague, Spanish Flu, Smallpox and we still have Anthrax and all. So, It is possible but, I don't foresee that for a decade or two.
 
But yet, no matter how bad those diseases were, Humans survived. We recovered, and we are now stronger than ever. I don't think a disease could ever wipe out everyone. Sure, they could hurt us, maybe wipe out a good chunk, but not everyone.
 
True but, Diseases like the Black plague never truly die. So we still have that around in plus Other Man made viruses that we do not know of.
 
Is the Black Plague a big deal anymore, though? Does it kill thousands of people a year? Not even close. And how can you say there are man made viruses we don't know of? If we don't know of them, how are you sure they exist?

Mankind is tough. We survive. We survived the Black Plague, we survived Smallpox, and we will survive any future diseases.
 
How are you sure? Of course we Survived many diseases but, for how long? I mean until we know that there are viruses that can kill and Wipe us out then we won't survive for long. Black Plague, Small pox, SARS, and Bird Flu took us by surprise ans still we are trying to Prevent and find a cure.
 
We HAVE a cure for smallpox.

Bubonic Plague? There are about 20 cases in the U.S. per year, and guess what - not everyone dies from it.

The Black Plague, Smallpox, they don't really affect anyone anymore. We stopped them! We will stop any future dieseases! There are no viruses at present time that will wipe us out. AIDS? We know how it is passed on, so we know how to prevent the spread. Not to mention the money being poured into finding a cure.

Humans are adaptable. We survived before, we will again.
 
Again I state that When a New virus Pops up we don't know anything about it has potential to wipe us out.

Bubonic Plague and all do have cures but, Think back to when we didn't know anything about it. We lost 3/4 of the European Population when the Bubonic was out and about. So what happens when something stronger and has a better way of Spreading?
 
As you said yourself. 3/4 of the EUROPEAN population. That is not every single human being on Earth. No virus will ever reach that point. If something that bad comes along, the whole world will be researching a cure. At this point, one would be found, and the virus will be eliminated.
 
It was not every singe Human but, it took a huge Chunk out of our Population. Again, If the Virus had a Structure so complex that it was a great challenge to Create a cure, Then would the Human Race be Dwindling on the Brink of Extinction by the time of the Cure?
 
No. We didn't even need a cure for the Bubonic Plague, did we? We had no advanced medical science back then. We simply survived. Now, with so much more technology, how can we not? What you are talking about has no support. Read Nyphnx's quote. As he points out, it would need to be VERY specific to take us out. And even then, we would find a cure. And if we were dwindling? Simple.

REPOPULATE! Humans and Animals can do that sort of thing.
 
The Plague, Polio, AIDs, etc.
All qualify as Pandemics.  The fact is there is the supreme possibility that strands will mutate and become stronger as we battle them away with medicines and other protectorates, along with the supreme fact that some people simply will not be affected.

Bird Flu.  Big scare.  SARs.  Big scare.
Yet all burned out, isolations and treatments nowadays are much more effective than the plague.  No disease can kill us off unless we make it kill us off.  By either altering it or by simply being stupid enough to destroy our own protections against it.
 
Sadly, a pandemic is bound to happen within the next century or so; as to why?

Back when the Bubonic Plauge occoured, all the towns in Europe were being crowded together.

When the Spanish Flu occoured, it happened during when people starting gathering up at urban centers.

Now; with 6 billion people- it is bound to happen again.  Living conditions are slowly, or hastily decreasing.  Once large countries are now struggling to support a swiftly growing population.  When people are crowded, places get dirty- and when places get dirty, there is a cesspool of diseases just reproducing.

If anything, Asia is going to be the first one struck with the disease.


Of course; this isn't going to kill us all- but it will act as a population control.  There was supposedly no cure to bubonic plauge in the 1390's, but due to less people, the disease had less of a chance to spread.  Also; when a threat arises, people learn to adapt to it, or evade it.


I'll post more later.
 
Thank you Faroe and Sixty

See, If someone tries to create a cure to a virus then he/she might end making a stronger and Able to spread more often.
 
I agree that it is bound to happen. I think it is nature's way of controling the world's population. When the human population increases to the extent living condictions suffer, there will be something to balance us back out.

This happens in nature as well. Whenever a certain species becomes overpopulated something comes along to balance the scale.

For example: Where I live the population of wild deer has increased 10 fold over the past 2 or 3 years. This fall,an infection spread throughout the population call "Blue Tongue"(wierd name). Ever sense you cannot drive down the road without seeing a dead deer.
 
zenrdy":30gaqa9y said:
Thank you Faroe and Sixty

See, If someone tries to create a cure to a virus then he/she might end making a stronger and Able to spread more often.
Zenrdy, are you using them as an excuse for the fact that you had no defence? -_-

But really, if you notice neither of thm said it would wipe out the population. In fact, Faroe actually said it wouldn't.

A disease is bound to happen. It's bound to be deadly. But it won't kill everyone. Humans can and will adapt and survive.
 
Yet, Still we tamper with viruses to find cures and again we create more viruses. If the World keeps on doing that, When will we get to the point of where we release a Virus that has no cure. Cancer is one thing but, if we tapered with it enough might make it airborne. All I'm trying to say that it is possible but, have a couple moments to think about that it has Potential to happen.
 
It does not have any potential to happen. Look at every single pandemic of the past. We struggled, but we survived. Humans have survived time and time again. That can be proven. There is precident.

Humans have never been wiped out before. Never. Not once has something killed  every human. If a virus came along, at least 1 person would survive it. Why? Because humans adapt. We build immunities.
 
But, if 1 person survives then it would lead up to Extinction, no?
humans have never been wiped out before. Never. Not once has something killed  every human. If a virus came along, at least 1 person would survive it. Why? Because humans adapt. We build immunities.
 
Yggdrassil":2rliqmfb said:
As you said yourself. 3/4 of the EUROPEAN population. That is not every single human being on Earth. No virus will ever reach that point. If something that bad comes along, the whole world will be researching a cure. At this point, one would be found, and the virus will be eliminated.


You cant say that. People are travelling more and more every passing year.. so having a mode of transport is easily accomplished. If there is a disease that becomes incurable and is contagious..  murder she wrote.

    * Acute Lymphocytic Leukemia
    * Acute Myeloid Leukemia
    * Acquired Immune Defficiency Syndrome (AIDS) see also HIV
    * Adrenoleukodystrophy (ALD)
    * Alzheimer disease
    * Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS,Lou Gehrig's disease)
    * Aspartylglucosaminuria
    * Asthma
    * Attention Deficit Disorder (ADD)
    * Autism
    * Avian Influenza
    * B-Mannosidosis
    * Batten disease (Juvenile Neuronal Ceroid Lipofuscinosis)
    * Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE, "Mad Cow" disease)
    * Bipolar disorder (Manic-depression)
    * Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL)
    * Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML)
    * Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (CJD) see also Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy and Kuru
    * Common Cold
    * chicken pox aka Herpes Zoster aka varicella-zoster aka Shingles
    * Currarino Triad
    * Cystic Fibrosis
    * Cystinosis
    * Dementia
    * Diabetes
    * Dysmyelogenic leukodystrophy (DMD a.k.a. Alexander disease)
    * Ebola
    * Emphysema (C.O.P.D.)
    * Farber disease
    * Fatal Familial Insomnia
    * Fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva
    * Flu
    * Fucosidosis
    * Galactosialidosis (Goldberg syndrome)
    * Gaucher disease
    * GM1 Gangliodsidosis
    * Hairy cell leukemia
    * Herpes Zoster aka varicella-zoster aka chicken pox
    * Hopeless Astrocytoma (Brain Cancer)
    * Hurler syndrome (includes Hurler-Scheie)
    * Hunter syndrome
    * Infantile Neuronal Ceroid Lipofuscinosis
    * Infertility
    * Krabbe disease
    * Kuru see Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease
    * Lissencephaly
    * Lymphocytic Lymphomas
          o Hodgkin Lymphoma
          o Non-Hodgkin lymphoma
          o Small lymphocytic lymphoma
    * Maroteaux-Lamy
    * Measles
    * Metachromatic Leukodystrophy (MLD)
    * Morquio A
    * Mucolipidosis II (I-Cell Disease)
    * Mucolipidosis IV
    * Multiple sclerosis (MS)
    * Niemann-Pick disease, Types A and B
    * Polio
    * Pompe disease
    * Prosaposin
    * Progeria
    * Pseudomyxoma peritonei
    * Psoriasis
    * Salla disease
    * Sandhoff disease
    * Sanfilippo A
    * Scheie syndrome
    * Schindler disease
    * Schizophrenia
    * Sialidosis (Mucolipidosis I)
    * Sly syndrome
    * Spreading Adenocarcinoma
    * Spreading Melanoma
    * Takayasu's arteritis (Pulseless Disease)
    * Tay-Sachs disease
    * Tinnitus
    * Wolan disease

10. Ebola

Ebola

Ebola is a virus of the family Filoviridae that is responsible for a severe and often fatal viral hemorrhagic fever; outbreaks in primates such as gorillas and chimpanzees as well as humans have been recorded. The disease is characterized by extreme fever, rash, and profuse hemorrhaging. In humans, fatality rates range from 50 to 90 percent.

The virus takes its name from the Ebola River in the northern Congo basin of central Africa, where it first emerged in 1976. Outbreaks that year in Zaire (now Congo [Kinshasa]) and The Sudan resulted in hundreds of deaths, as did another outbreak in Zaire in 1995. Ebola is closely related to the Marburg virus, which was discovered in 1967, and the two are the only members of the Filoviridae that cause epidemic human disease. A third related agent, called Ebola Reston, caused an epidemic in laboratory monkeys in Reston, Virginia, but apparently is not fatal to humans.

9. Polio

Dwe00209G01

Polio is known in full as poliomyelitis - also called infantile paralysis. It is an acute viral infectious disease of the nervous system that usually begins with general symptoms such as fever, headache, nausea, fatigue, and muscle pains and spasms and is sometimes followed by a more serious and permanent paralysis of muscles in one or more limbs, the throat, or the chest. More than half of all cases of polio occur in children under the age of five. The paralysis so commonly associated with the disease actually affects fewer than 1 percent of persons infected by the poliovirus.

Between 5 and 10 percent of infected persons display only the general symptoms outlined above, and more than 90 percent show no signs of illness at all. For those infected by the poliovirus, there is no cure, and in the mid-20th century hundreds of thousands of children were struck by the disease every year. Since the 1960s, thanks to widespread use of polio vaccines, polio has been eliminated from most of the world, and it is now endemic only in several countries of Africa and South Asia. Approximately 1,000–2,000 children are still paralyzed by polio each year, most of them in India.

8. Lupus Erythematosus

Arthritis Lupus Lupus01

Also often referred to simply as lupus, this is an autoimmune disorder that causes chronic inflammation in various parts of the body. Three main types of lupus are recognized—discoid, systemic, and drug-induced.

Discoid lupus affects only the skin and does not usually involve internal organs. The term discoid refers to a rash of distinct reddened patches covered with grayish brown scales that may appear on the face, neck, and scalp. In about 10 percent of people with discoid lupus, the disease will evolve into the more severe systemic form of the disorder.

Systemic lupus erythematosus is the most common form of the disease. It may affect virtually any organ or structure of the body, especially the skin, kidneys, joints, heart, gastrointestinal tract, brain, and serous membranes (membranous linings of organs, joints, and cavities of the body.) While systemic lupus can affect any area of the body, most people experience symptoms in only a few organs. The skin rash, if present, resembles that of discoid lupus. In general, no two people will have identical symptoms. The course of the disease is also variable and is marked by periods when the disease is active and by other periods when symptoms are not evident (remission).

7. Influenza

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Influenza, also known as the flu, or grippe, is an acute viral infection of the upper or lower respiratory tract that is marked by fever, chills, and a generalized feeling of weakness and pain in the muscles, together with varying degrees of soreness in the head and abdomen.

Influenza is caused by any of several strains of orthomyxoviruses, categorized as types A, B, and C. The three major types generally produce similar symptoms but are completely unrelated antigenically, so that infection with one type confers no immunity against the others. The A viruses cause the great influenza epidemics, and the B viruses cause smaller localized outbreaks; the C viruses are not important causes of disease in humans. Between pandemics, the viruses undergo constant, rapid evolution (a process called antigenic drift) in response to the pressures of human population immunity. Periodically, they undergo major evolutionary change by acquiring a new genome segment from another influenza virus (antigenic shift), effectively becoming a new subtype to which none, or very few, of the population is immune.

6. Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease

17146

Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease is a rare fatal degenerative disease of the central nervous system. Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease occurs throughout the world at an incidence of one person in a million; however, among certain populations, such as Libyan Jews, rates are somewhat higher. The disease commonly occurs in adults between the ages of 40 and 70, although some young adults have been stricken with the disease. Both men and women are affected equally. The onset of the disease is usually characterized by vague psychiatric or behavioral changes, which are followed within weeks or months by a progressive dementia that is often accompanied by abnormal vision and involuntary movements. There is no known cure for the disease, which is usually fatal within a year of the onset of symptoms.

The disease was first described in the 1920s by the German neurologists Hans Gerhard Creutzfeldt and Alfons Maria Jakob. Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease is similar to other neurodegenerative diseases such as kuru, a human disorder, and scrapie, which occurs in sheep and goats. All three diseases are types of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies, so called because of the characteristic spongelike pattern of neuronal destruction that leaves brain tissue filled with holes.

More after this message...



5. Diabetes

Diabetes Type2

Diabetes is a disorder of carbohydrate metabolism characterized by impaired ability of the body to produce or respond to insulin and thereby maintain proper levels of sugar (glucose) in the blood.

There are two major forms of the disease. Type I diabetes, formerly referred to as insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) and juvenile-onset diabetes, usually arises in childhood. It is an autoimmune disorder in which the diabetic person’s immune system produces antibodies that destroy the insulin-producing beta cells. Because the body is no longer able to produce insulin, daily injections of the hormone are required.

Type II diabetes, formerly called non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) and adult-onset diabetes, usually occurs after 40 years of age and becomes more common with increasing age. It arises from either sluggish pancreatic secretion of insulin or reduced responsiveness in target cells of the body to secreted insulin. It is linked to genetics and obesity, notably upper-body obesity. People with type II diabetes can control blood glucose levels through diet and exercise and, if necessary, by taking insulin injections or oral medications.

4. HIV/AIDS

Hiv Cycle

AIDS is the byname of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome - a transmissible disease of the immune system caused by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). HIV slowly attacks and destroys the immune system, the body’s defense against infection, leaving an individual vulnerable to a variety of other infections and certain malignancies that eventually cause death. AIDS is the final stage of HIV infection, during which time fatal infections and cancers frequently arise.

HIV/AIDS spread to epidemic proportions in the 1980s, particularly in Africa, where the disease may have originated. Spread was likely facilitated by several factors, including increasing urbanization and long-distance travel in Africa, international travel, changing sexual mores, and intravenous drug use. According to the United Nations 2004 report on AIDS, some 38 million people are living with HIV, approximately 5 million people become infected annually, and about 3 million people die each year from AIDS. Some 20 million people have died of the disease since 1981.

3. Asthma

Asthma-1

Asthma is a chronic disorder of the lungs in which inflamed airways are prone to constrict, causing episodes of breathlessness, wheezing, coughing, and chest tightness that range in severity from mild to life-threatening. Inflamed airways become hypersensitive to a variety of stimuli, including dust mites, animal dander, pollen, air pollution, cigarette smoke, medications, weather conditions, and exercise. Stress can exacerbate symptoms.

Asthmatic episodes may begin suddenly or may take days to develop. Although an initial episode can occur at any age, about half of all cases occur in persons younger than 10 years of age, with boys being affected more often than girls. Among adults, however, the incidence of asthma is approximately equal in men and women. When asthma develops in childhood, it is often associated with an inherited susceptibility to allergens, substances such as pollen, dust mites, or animal dander that may induce an allergic reaction. In adults, asthma also may develop in response to allergens, but viral infections, aspirin, and exercise may cause the disease as well. Adults who develop asthma may have nasal polyps or sinusitis.

2. Cancer

Cancer-1

Cancer refers to a group of more than 100 distinct diseases characterized by the uncontrolled growth of abnormal cells in the body. Cancer affects one in every three persons born in developed countries and is a major cause of sickness and death throughout the world. Though it has been known since antiquity, significant improvements in cancer treatment have been made since the middle of the 20th century, mainly through a combination of timely and accurate diagnosis, selective surgery, radiation therapy, and chemotherapeutic drugs. Such advances actually have brought about a decrease in cancer deaths (at least in developed countries), and grounds for further optimism are seen in laboratory investigations into elucidating the causes and mechanisms of the disease.

Owing to continuing advances in cell biology, genetics, and biotechnology, researchers now have a fundamental understanding of what goes wrong in a cancer cell and in an individual who develops cancer—and these conceptual gains are steadily being converted into further progress in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of this disease.

1. The Common Cold

19656

The common cold is an acute viral infection that starts in the upper respiratory tract, sometimes spreads to the lower structures, and may cause secondary infections in the eyes or middle ears. More than 100 agents cause the common cold, including parainfluenza, influenza, respiratory syncytial viruses, and reoviruses. Rhinoviruses, however, are the most frequent cause.

The popular term common cold reflects the feeling of chilliness on exposure to a cold environment that is part of the onset of symptoms. The feeling was originally believed to have a cause-and-effect relationship with the disease, but this is now known to be incorrect. The cold is caught from exposure to infected people, not from a cold environment, chilled wet feet, or drafts. People can carry the virus and communicate it without experiencing any of the symptoms themselves. Incubation is short — usually one to four days. The viruses start spreading from an infected person before the symptoms appear, and the spread reaches its peak during the symptomatic phase.

.. now how long do you think some of these diseases been around? If there is a new disease that makes these diseases look like a simple head cold.. we may not have time enough to find a cure. So unless there scientist that are hid away from the world wearing a cape and leotards.. we cant be too sure about anything. Humans are capable of being extinct like any other animals.. its plausible to say the least.. but highly unlikely.


.. also every animal adapts and has went through evolution.. that doesnt mean that it cant become extinct. Arrogance is a savage's downfall.. fear of becoming extinct has saved us.
 

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