Alrighty, this is kind of a split from the Global Warming topic. I didn't feel like actually splitting it because it'd be messy and some of the posts actually had on-topic info in them.
Okay.
Pandemics
Has anyone read The Stand by Stephen King?
Well, there's this (presumably) manufactured disease, people call Captain Tripps. Through some [unimportant] circumstances, the disease breaks loose. A man is infected, who escapes and goes on the lam with his family. This disease is like a super-cold: it exhibits all the same symptoms of a flu, but there is no cure, and it just keeps getting worse and worse until you're dead. Takes sometimes a few days, sometimes a few weeks, but once you have it, that's it.
Anyway, the family reaches a little shitburg somewhere, and die. The people who find the family are all instantly infected. One of these men leaves the town, and travels elsewhere, infecting people as he goes. Then the people that he infected get on a plane. They infect other people in other countries. Those people infect everyone they come in contact with. Within only a few months, nearly all the people in the civilized world are dead. There are a few who survive, who're immune, and they go on a quest, but the focus here is on the pandemic situation.
---
Now then.
Here's the point that Samboy brought up:
To which I replied:
Nphyx brings up a good argument, however:
Clizzz says:
------------
What do you think? Do you think it's possible for a disease to wipe out everyone (or, mostly everyone--certainly atleast civilization as we know it) in the world? What type of disease would it be? Do you think modern science can produce such a thing, or has something led you to believe that something is already happening in nature which bodes badly for us as a species?
Okay.
Pandemics
Has anyone read The Stand by Stephen King?
Well, there's this (presumably) manufactured disease, people call Captain Tripps. Through some [unimportant] circumstances, the disease breaks loose. A man is infected, who escapes and goes on the lam with his family. This disease is like a super-cold: it exhibits all the same symptoms of a flu, but there is no cure, and it just keeps getting worse and worse until you're dead. Takes sometimes a few days, sometimes a few weeks, but once you have it, that's it.
Anyway, the family reaches a little shitburg somewhere, and die. The people who find the family are all instantly infected. One of these men leaves the town, and travels elsewhere, infecting people as he goes. Then the people that he infected get on a plane. They infect other people in other countries. Those people infect everyone they come in contact with. Within only a few months, nearly all the people in the civilized world are dead. There are a few who survive, who're immune, and they go on a quest, but the focus here is on the pandemic situation.
---
Now then.
Here's the point that Samboy brought up:
Samboy":1gomlqrc said:I've heard this from a friend recently, and we discussed the possibility of making AIDS airborne. How many would that kill? At least everybody in the country, we guessed. Until it traveled overseas, screwed a few more people and then there we go. Another country wiped out.
Global warming is nothing compared to the viruses that may/will be available in a few years time. Think of all the viruses we have now, think of how many injections we need to get in our life. How did they survive before injections? Go figure.
To which I replied:
Venetia said:I wouldn't worry about an airborne AIDS virus. It'd be more likely for there to arise a bacterial (not viral) airborne entity. Viruses, for the most part, live in blood or mucus. They need a liquid and certain temperatures to survive. Their "pods" can go anywhere, and are resilient, but bacteria are far more developed and have a larger range of survivability in temperature and dry conditions.
I'd be more worried about a "super" case of bacterial meningitis, really. For anything directly on the horizon. Who knows what kind of bio-manufactured goodness we'll have cooking up in 10 years.
Nphyx brings up a good argument, however:
Nphyx said:I don't think it's a very likely scenario though. In order to have a pandemic that can wipe out a large majority of the human race you have to have a lot of factors in place. It has to be easily transmittable, extremely sturdy, resistant to all known forms of treatment, have just the right timing on contagiousness, incubation and mortality that it doesn't either kill its victims too fast to spread out of a local area or take so long that it poses no serious short-term risk.
Logic tells us that either 1. it's extremely unlikely or even practically impossible for such an organism to evolve or that 2. that it is possible and likely, and we should see in history or at least the fossil record massive but highly selective extinction events, which I am not aware of. The worst pandemics in human history have rarely succeeded in killing more than a third of a given population, though granted sometimes the side effects - collapse of general civil order - result in more problems (such as in the central and south American civilizations, which some people theorize collapsed entirely due to epidemics).
Also granted most of the extinction events that we see in the fossil record also happen to coincide with the sort of catastrophes that result in large amounts of fossilization. The human race also suffers from a relatively low amount of genetic diversity compared to most other healthy species, so it's easier for us to share diseases and less likely for one group or another to have genetic resistances (funny when you think of our lack of genetic diversity in regard to racism, yet another tangent), which is something to consider.
As far as manufactured diseases go, I think we give genetic engineers way too much credit. Microbial life seems to evolve a lot more rapidly than we can keep up with even in terms of treatment, I have a hard time believing we have a good enough grasp on it to really build these designer diseases, and a harder time still believing that if someone had developed one they'd have the prudence to not put it to use. The kind of megalomaniacs that develop those sorts of weapons especially love seeing them put to effect - see for reference the atomic bomb or weaponized anthrax or any of the monstrous chemical weapons used in WWI.
Clizzz says:
Clizzz said:Yeah, I too would worry about the "Super Bug" If it's drug resistant, then you will have some problems ... after all we treat sicknesses and diseases with drugs ...
------------
What do you think? Do you think it's possible for a disease to wipe out everyone (or, mostly everyone--certainly atleast civilization as we know it) in the world? What type of disease would it be? Do you think modern science can produce such a thing, or has something led you to believe that something is already happening in nature which bodes badly for us as a species?